TLDR
- Polymarket, a crypto prediction platform, has set a new monthly trading volume record of $116.4 million in July 2024.
- The surge in activity is largely driven by bets on the upcoming U.S. presidential election.
- Nate Silver, a renowned statistician and election analyst, has joined Polymarket as an advisor.
- Trump is currently favored to win the election according to Polymarket odds, with a 69% chance of victory.
- Polymarket has seen $471.9 million in total bets since the beginning of 2024 across various events.
Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market, has shattered its previous records with an unprecedented surge in trading volume this July.
Just halfway through the month, the platform has already recorded $116.4 million in trades, surpassing June’s peak of $111.5 million.
This remarkable growth is largely attributed to increased interest in betting on the outcome of the upcoming U.S. presidential election.
The platform, which describes itself as “the world’s largest prediction market,” has seen a total of $471.9 million in bets placed since the beginning of 2024.
These wagers span a wide range of topics, including politics, finance, sports, and cryptocurrency events. However, it’s the political sphere that’s currently dominating user interest.
As of mid-July, traders on Polymarket have wagered an impressive $263.5 million on the U.S. presidential election scheduled for November 4th.
The current odds favor former President Donald Trump, giving him a 69% chance of victory. Incumbent President Joe Biden trails with a 19% chance, followed by Vice President Kamala Harris at 6% and former First Lady Michelle Obama at 2%.
The platform’s growing influence in political forecasting has attracted the attention of Nate Silver, a renowned statistician and election analyst.
Silver, who founded the poll analysis website FiveThirtyEight, has recently joined Polymarket as an advisor. His expertise is expected to bring valuable insights to the platform’s prediction markets.
“Prediction markets are playing an increasingly vital role in helping people understand and plan for the future,”
Silver stated. He emphasized that Polymarket’s scale and structure are providing for more robust and efficient trading than seen in past prediction markets.
The surge in activity isn’t limited to high-stakes political bets. Polymarket offers a diverse array of markets, allowing users to wager on everything from weather predictions to box office performances.
This variety has contributed to a significant increase in user engagement, with the platform registering 29,400 active users last month and already counting 22,000 halfway through July.
Polymarket’s success has not gone unnoticed in the financial world. In May, the platform announced a successful $80 million Series B funding round, which included participation from Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin.
This injection of capital has likely played a role in the platform’s recent growth and increased visibility.
As Polymarket continues to gain traction, it’s becoming an increasingly cited source in mainstream media outlets. Publications such as Newsweek and the Wall Street Journal have referenced Polymarket’s projections in their political coverage, further solidifying the platform’s role as a barometer of public sentiment.
