TLDR
- Donald Trump’s odds of winning the 2024 US presidential election increased to 70-71% after he was grazed by a bullet at a rally in Pennsylvania.
- Cryptocurrency markets and Trump-themed tokens saw gains following the incident.
- Prediction markets and betting odds show Trump leading in key swing states.
- Robert Kiyosaki and other prominent figures have reaffirmed their support for Trump.
- Trump faces ongoing legal challenges but has secured the Republican nomination.
Former President Donald Trump’s chances of winning the 2024 US presidential election have climbed to new heights following an assassination attempt at a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania.
Prediction markets and betting odds now place Trump’s probability of victory at around 70-71%, a significant increase from previous estimates.
The incident, which occurred on July 13, 2024, saw Trump grazed by a bullet during a campaign event. Despite the attack, the former president emerged relatively unscathed, with images of a defiant Trump pumping his fist in the air circulating widely on social media.
The assassination attempt has seemingly galvanized support for Trump, particularly among his base.
Cryptocurrency markets reacted swiftly to the news, with the overall market seeing gains. The CoinDesk 20 index, a measure of the broader crypto market, rose 3.31% in the 24 hours following the incident.
Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency by market cap, increased by 3.26% to $59,735.17.
Trump-themed tokens, often referred to as “PoliFi” or political finance tokens, experienced significant surges. The MAGA token jumped 34% to $8.38, while the satirical TREMP token climbed 67% to $0.6471.
Conversely, BODEN, a token named after President Biden, dropped about 15% to $0.0333115.
Prediction markets, such as Polymarket and PredictIt, have seen increased activity and shifting odds in Trump’s favor. These markets are often considered more reliable indicators of public sentiment than traditional polls, as participants have a financial stake in the outcome.
Polymarket’s contract on whether Trump will win the presidency now shows a 70% chance of victory, up from 60% before the incident.
Trump’s improved odds extend to key swing states, with prediction markets showing him leading in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. These battleground states played a crucial role in the 2020 election and are likely to be decisive again in 2024.
The former president has also received renewed endorsements from prominent figures. Robert Kiyosaki, a well-known author and Bitcoin advocate, expressed his unwavering support for Trump on social media.
Tech entrepreneur Elon Musk and TRON DAO founder Justin Sun have also voiced their backing, citing potential benefits for the cryptocurrency industry under a Trump administration.
Despite his surging popularity, Trump continues to face legal challenges. He has been indicted in four criminal cases, totaling 91 felony counts.
However, these legal troubles appear to have had little impact on his support among Republicans, with many viewing the charges as politically motivated.
The 2024 election landscape remains complex, with factors such as the economy, immigration, and foreign policy likely to play significant roles. While Trump’s odds have improved, the election is still months away, and much can change in the political arena.
