TLDR
- Bitcoin has declined about 26% since the April 2024 halving, similar to its 27% decline after the 2016 halving.
- Veteran trader Peter Brandt sees similarities between current Bitcoin price movements and those preceding the 2017 bull run.
- Bitcoin recently dropped below $50,000 but has shown signs of recovery, reaching $56,000 on August 6.
- Brandt suggests Bitcoin could potentially “pump” to $92,579, though this is speculative.
- Some analysts warn Bitcoin could drop lower, while others expect a faster recovery compared to traditional markets.
Bitcoin, the world’s largest cryptocurrency, has experienced significant price fluctuations since its April 2024 halving event.
Veteran trader Peter Brandt has pointed out similarities between current market movements and those seen before the 2017 bull run.
According to Brandt, Bitcoin has declined about 26% since the April 2024 halving. This drop is remarkably similar to the 27% decline observed after the 2016 halving.
In 2016, Bitcoin’s price fell from $650 on the halving day to a low of $474 within a month. However, it then surged to a cycle high of $20,000 by December 2017.
Recently, Bitcoin’s price dropped below $50,000, marking a 26% decline from its post-halving price of $64,962.
On August 5, 2024, Bitcoin prices fell to $49,221, according to data from CoinGecko. This represents a 20% loss since reaching nearly $70,000 in late July.
Despite this downturn, Bitcoin has shown signs of recovery. By early trading in Asia on August 6, it had reclaimed the $56,000 level. This quick rebound has led some analysts to speculate about potential future gains.
Brandt, known for his chart analysis, has suggested that Bitcoin could potentially “pump” to $92,579. However, he emphasizes the importance of focusing on possibilities rather than certainties.
To reach this target price, Bitcoin would need to rise by approximately 66% from its current trading price of around $55,784.
Not all analysts share this optimistic outlook. Some warn that Bitcoin could drop even lower.
Benjamin Cowen, founder of ITC Crypto, has noted that the current pattern mirrors that of 2019. In that year, markets surged for the first half before experiencing a massive correction in the second half.
Tim Kravchunovsky, CEO of Chirp, a decentralized telecommunications network, suggests that crypto assets might recover more quickly than other risk assets, as they did in 2020.
He believes that macroeconomic factors are currently driving the market, rather than crypto-specific issues.
Kravchunovsky stated,
“Over the coming hours and days, we may well see a decoupling of crypto from traditional stocks, similar to what we saw in 2020.” He added, “Back then, crypto staged a much faster and more pronounced recovery from the pandemic-driven collapse than traditional stock markets, and we may well see something similar this time.”
