TLDR
- July 29, 2024, marks 100 days since Bitcoin’s fourth halving event
- Historical data suggests Bitcoin’s price tends to surge after 100 days post-halving
- Analysts predict a “massive run” for Bitcoin in late Q3 or early Q4 of 2024
- Institutional investors are accumulating Bitcoin through ETFs
- Bitcoin’s price is currently above $67,000, with projected targets up to $300,000
Today marks 100 days since Bitcoin’s fourth halving event, which took place on April 20, 2024. This milestone is significant for the cryptocurrency community, as historical data suggests it could signal the start of a major price surge.
Bitcoin halving is a pre-programmed event that occurs approximately every four years. It reduces the reward miners receive for validating transactions by half.
The latest halving cut the reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC per block. This reduction in new Bitcoin supply is designed to make the cryptocurrency scarcer over time.
Andre Dragosch, head of research at ETC Group, points out that the effects of the halving-induced supply deficit typically start to show around the 100-day mark.
“The market tends to have a short memory, but the halving-induced supply deficit should just start taking effect from now on,” Dragosch stated on social media.
ETC Group’s research, which analyzed data from previous halvings in 2012, 2016, and 2020, shows that Bitcoin’s performance tends to improve significantly after the 100-day point.
in case the lettuce hands need a reminder $BTC cc @glassnode @coinbase pic.twitter.com/8NAtUft8Me
— Chris Burniske (@cburniske) April 17, 2024
The study found that the mean excess performance – the difference between Bitcoin’s performance before and after the halving – becomes statistically significant at this time.
As of July 29, 2024, Bitcoin is trading above $67,000. This price point is notable, as it sits just above what some analysts identify as a crucial “short-squeeze zone” around $67,687.
Short-squeeze zones are areas where high volumes of liquidations can occur, potentially triggering rapid price increases.
Looking ahead, some analysts are predicting a “massive run” for Bitcoin in the latter part of 2024. Projections vary, but some are eyeing potential targets of $150,000, $200,000, or even $300,000. These predictions are based on historical post-halving trends and current market dynamics.
1/3
Besides the mere pattern that we now see, there is a strong logic behind the fact that the charts from the past 3 cycles are so similar.
1. Halving: Halving is a sell-the-news event, retail is expecting the big run, whales that have been accumulating start to distribute
2.… pic.twitter.com/hdUfq1EuNx— Stockmoney Lizards (@StockmoneyL) July 26, 2024
One factor supporting bullish predictions is institutional investment. Data shows that major financial institutions like BlackRock, Fidelity, and Franklin Templeton have been steadily accumulating Bitcoin through exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
This institutional interest, even during recent price dips, suggests confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term prospects.
The journey to this point hasn’t been without its fluctuations. Following the halving in April, Bitcoin experienced a correction, which is typical after these events.
This pattern of correction and redistribution has been observed in previous cycles, with large holders often selling to retail investors before the halving, then buying back at lower prices afterward.
As we move past the 100-day mark, the crypto community will be watching closely to see if history repeats itself. Will Bitcoin embark on another significant bull run, as it has following previous halvings? Or will this cycle break the pattern?
Whatever the outcome, this 100-day milestone serves as a reminder of Bitcoin’s unique economic model and its continued impact on the broader cryptocurrency landscape. As always, the world of Bitcoin remains a space of anticipation, analysis, and ongoing evolution.
