The Chicago Board Options Exchange (Cboe) has submitted the 19b-4 forms to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to seek listing approval for spot Solana exchange-traded funds (ETFs) from VanEck and 21Shares, said Nate Geraci, president of the ETF Store.
Meanwhile, spot Ethereum ETFs are coming along and will likely be listed soon.
According to Geraci, the SEC will start reviewing and make a decision on the filings once the regulator acknowledges them. However, even with Cboe’s approval of 19b-4 forms, a separate S-1 form must be approved by the SEC to allow trading, similar to what’s happening with spot Ethereum ETFs.
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Eric Balchunas, a Bloomberg ETF expert, estimates mid-March 2025 as the earliest approval date. He noted that this November would be particularly important due to the U.S. election. A potential win by Trump might expedite approval, while the prospect that Biden returns to the White House would likely give the ETFs no chance of success.
“Solana ETFs are going to have a final deadline of mid-March 2025. But between now and then the most [important] date is in November. If Biden wins, these likely DOA. If Trump wins, anything [possible],” he stated.
The latest developments follow VanEck’s initial application for a spot Solana ETF last month. Matthew Sigel, VanEck’s Head of Digital Assets Research, believes Solana is a commodity like Bitcoin and Ethereum, two established cryptocurrencies.
Shortly after VanEck’s filing, 21Shares applied with the SEC to seek approval for its spot Solana fund. The firm sees this as a positive step for crypto accessibility.
Despite the positive progress, there’s skepticism about approval due to Solana’s lack of a CME futures market. Both Bitcoin and Ethereum had regulated futures markets before spot ETF approval. With the precedent set by Bitcoin and Ethereum, experts argue that a regulated futures market is typically a prerequisite for ETF approval.
Without a CME Solana futures market, Solana faces substantial regulatory uncertainty, as the SEC has classified it as a security in ongoing lawsuits.
However, VanEck’s Sigel disputed the need for a regulated futures market. He argued that other commodity ETFs, such as shipping or uranium, don’t rely on them for price discovery and that alternative methods like exchange surveillance agreements could suffice.
VanEck’s Solana ETF is Bet on SEC Leadership
In an interview with Bloomberg, Sigel said the approval of a Solana ETF largely depends on a change in leadership at the SEC. It’s also a strategic bet on Trump’s reelection.
Sigel said that under the current SEC leadership, the approval of a Solana ETF is “near zero,” as Gensler has imposed strict requirements on cryptocurrency products. However, he believes a new SEC chair appointed by the Trump administration could be more open to approving a Solana ETF.
Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas also stated that the Solana ETF filing is a “call option on the POTUS election,” with the odds of approval tied to the likelihood of a change in the American presidency.
Meanwhile, spot Ethereum ETFs have seen some progress. According to CNBC, the SEC’s ruling could come “as soon as this week or next.” At the time of writing, ETF issuers, including BlackRock, Fidelity, VanEck, Franklin Templeton, 21Shares, and Grayscale, and BlackRock submitted their S-1 amendments with the SEC.
The SEC approved the first spot Ethereum ETFs on May 23; however, the listing of these funds has faced unexpected delays, with trading not yet commenced. Experts believe the Ethereum ETFs will likely begin trading in mid-to-late July 2024, although an exact timeline remains uncertain.
The approval of spot Ethereum ETFs in the U.S. is expected to drive increased demand and awareness for Ethereum, similar to the impact of spot Bitcoin ETFs.
